The political and economic outlook on the global stage is subject to considerable uncertainty, while a growing resentment to free trade and movement will likely lead to changes in the approach world institutions take to brokering future international trade deals. The EU has already shown signs that there is reluctance to continue with the mantra of free trade, increasing tariffs on Chinese steel from 22.6% to 73.7%.

Following the result of the EU Referendum the UK Government has begun to prepare itself for triggering the formal process of leaving the EU, through Article 50 by the end of March 2017. Data shows UK GDP had been growing before the referendum, with growth rates of 0.4% and 0.7% in Q1 and Q2 2016 respectively and, despite a recent increase, inflation remains relatively low.

The central HM Treasury Consensus forecast is that GDP growth this year will be 1.9% and 1% next year, which is in line with the OECD’s, estimates which are 1.8% and 1% respectively. However, uncertainty around these forecasts persists, particularly for next year.

Download the full report