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Economics & Real Estate Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Purchasing indices suggest first quarter slowdown

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Economic Highlights

  • The final estimate for UK GDP in Q4 2015 revised up quarterly growth to 0.6%, with annual growth for 2015 now recorded as 2.3%. The service sector continues to drive growth, up 0.8% in the quarter, with the hotel and food services sector growing particularly strongly, up 2.3%.
  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in the year to March, compared with a 0.3% increase in the year to February. The largest upward contribution came from air transport, air fares increased by 23% between February and March, partially due to the timing of Easter.
  • The latest employment statistics for the three months to January 2016 showed an increase in employment of 116,000 when compared against the three months to October 2015. Unemployment decreased by 28,000 to 1.68 million, resulting in a fall in the unemployment rate to 5.1%.

Sector Highlights

  • Office – The UK Services PMI increased to 53.7 in March from the 35-month low of 52.7 in February, the figures represent a slowdown from 2015 but still suggest expansion. (Markit/CIPS)
  • Industrial – The UK Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 51.0 in March from February’s 34-month low of 50.8. The Q1 2016 average of 51.6 representing the lowest quarterly result since early 2013. (Markit/CIPS)

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