Matthew Henderson
Associate Director, Residential Research
After fluctuating UK house prices ended the year at -2.2%, within our forecast range of -5% and 0%. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of negative annual growth; however quarterly growth was positive at 0.8% - and many months in the latter half of the year have seen house price growth. Agents are generally positive for the 2024 outlook; they believe that we have seen the worse of the transaction lull, which in turn will start to have a positive impact on prices. The 2024 forecast is for positive growth, 0% to 5%, with 10% to 15% expected in the five years to 2028.
PCL house prices stayed relatively flat across the year, ending the year down -0.8%. This was again within our forecast range of -3% to 3%. PCL sales prices decreased slightly over Q4 2023, -0.2%, but again the outlook for 2024 is positive, with rates beginning to come down as well as people becoming accustomed to the higher interest rate market. This is already encouraging more households onto the market with transactions they have held off making in the past year. Our 2024 forecast is 0% to 5%, with 10% to 15% expected over the next five year (inclusive of 2024).
PCL rents saw growth across 2023 at 2.9%, within our forecast range of 2% to 7%. This was the 10th consecutive quarter of positive annual growth. However, quarter-on-quarter rents fell by -0.6%. Undersupply issues persist and prime stock is still going for above asking rent, therefore, we are forecasting growth of 3% to 6% in 2024, with 10% to 15% expected in the five years to 2028.
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