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Rural

Australian harvest will have a significant impact on wheat price

Q4 2012

The price of wheat for the next six months will be partly dependent upon the Australian harvest due to commence in November, says farm business consultancy Strutt & Parker.

The price of wheat for the next six months will be partly dependent upon the Australian harvest due to commence in November, says farm business consultancy Strutt & Parker.

Australia, the third biggest wheat exporter in the world, is the last country to harvest in 2012 and much depends on the crop size.

Mark Woods, farm business consultant in Strutt & Parker's Newbury office, said: "The Australian wheat harvest was recently downgraded from 26mt to 22mt, as a result of the dry weather; if this materialises it could have a significant impact on prices, driving them up."

Mr Woods said: "Poor crop reports tend to get poorer, which means that the Australian harvest maybe downgraded further from the recent USDA estimate.

"Additionally, if the sterling weakens, in line with forecasts, it is not inconceivable that wheat will break through market highs in the spring, and possibly go even higher."

Mr Woods continued: "While markets are firm, long position on wheat and oil crops are worth looking at, providing that these positions are not over sold and fall backs for premiums are negotiated at the time.

"High market prices will not be around for ever and strategic long sale positions when markets are close to all-time highs may be a good thing for harvest 2013."

For further information, please contact Mark Woods in Strutt & Parker's Newbury office on 01635 576904.