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Residential

Further house price growth forecasted for 2014

Q1 2014

House prices in the UK will continue to rise in 2014 as the momentum gained over the last 12 months shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

House prices in the UK will continue to rise in 2014 as the momentum gained over the last 12 months shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

The Halifax Building Society predicts growth of up to 8%, a broadly similar pace to 2013, buoyed by the burgeoning economic recovery and low interest rates.

It also claims a housing bubble isn’t on the horizon after all, with several factors, including continuing pressures on household finances and the potential for more properties to come on to the market, set to limit the increase.

House prices jumped by 7% in the first 11 months of last year, according to Halifax’s Housing Market Outlook report, while activity also picked up during the period.

It is reported that the total number of transactions in 2013 is likely to exceed one million for the first time since 2007.

Martin Ellis, Halifax’s housing economist, claims a combination of higher demand and an insufficient rise in housing supply has led to the market performing stronger than originally thought at the start of the year.

“Overall, prices nationally are forecast to increase in a range of between 4% and 8% next year. Together with a predicted decline in unemployment, this should further boost consumer confidence.

James Mackenzie, from Strutt & Parker's country house department, concurs, commenting that “The increased optimism throughout 2013 fuelled a surge in activity towards the end of the year. We were busy right up until Christmas with a number of houses exchanging at the last minute. This optimism looks set to continue into the new year especially considering the relative differences in values between London and the country market is still so marked. Country homes will therefore still prove attractive and a sound investment.

"This late surge has suggested the disappearance of the traditional selling seasons, 2014 could well be the same. An early spring market could be on be on the cards."

Low interest rates and Government schemes, such as Help to Buy, have also stimulated demand in the market and tempted more people to get on or move up the property ladder.

While 2013 has been characterised by residential property price growth in the south east of the country, particularly London, the regional pattern is expected to be more even in 2014 with all regions experiencing price gains.

Looking beyond the next 12 months, however, the forecast is for only muted rises in house prices as increased supply, eventual interest rates rises and high house prices relative to incomes dampen upward pressure.