
A surging housing market full of renewed confidence has helped put the UK's economic recovery firmly on track, says an influential forecasting body.
A surging housing market full of renewed confidence has helped put the UK's economic recovery firmly on track, says an influential forecasting body.
The Ernst & Young Item Club claims the recovery has "finally got the legs" to go the distance and return to form, thanks also to rising consumer spending nationwide.
It has almost doubled its forecast for growth this year to 1.1%, up from 0.6% just three months ago, but despite the positive signs a rebalancing of the UK economy remains unlikely in 2013.
Exports continue to be subdued, but the Item Club is confident of a long-awaited revival in exports and business investment next year, reflecting a recovery in the United States, pro-growth policies in Europe and a shift towards consumption in China.
In terms of the housing market, Ernst & Young expects Government schemes to carry on stimulating growth by making mortgages more accessible to a larger number of would-be buyers.
However, consumers will fund higher spending by dipping into their savings, rather than through a big increase in household incomes.
"It's looking much more positive and we're unlikely to see a repeat of 2011 when a recovery in confidence was crushed by the euro crisis," commented Professor Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser to the Item Club.
"Spending on the high street is holding up nicely, housing market transactions are beginning to gather pace and, perhaps most significantly, the global economy also appears to be on the mend."
Mortgage approvals soared to a three-and-a-half year high in May and house prices rose at their fastest rate for almost three years in June, thanks in part to the positive impact that the Government's Help to Buy and Funding for Lending schemes have had since they were introduced.
Help to Buy allows people to buy a home with just a 5% deposit, aided with a loan of up to 20% from the Government, while Funding for Lending offers banks and building societies discounted funding in return for increases in lending.
Following its success, the Help to Buy initiative is to be extended next year to include a state guarantee for mortgages.
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