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Research Property futures

London’s improving infrastructure is shifting the city to a polycentric model, and the change has just begun!

Q3 2015

During the age of the office, London’s business geography has been defined by the City of London and the West End – with Midtown a contentious emergent in the middle ground between the two. At the same time London’s major rail stations such as King’s Cross have been little more than staging posts for commuters on the way to the city’s inner core.
Given that London’s population was in decline through the 1950s, 60s and 70s, before starting a very gradual recovery in the 80s, this stagnant state of affairs is not exactly surprising. However, with the population surging throughout the noughties and continuing to do so, a rapid change is now underway.

We have seen high profile regeneration at King’s Cross and London Bridge, with major occupiers across the industry spectrum proving themselves in no way wedded to London’s more traditional business areas. For example, the global communications group Havas has taken 164,000 sq ft. in King’s Cross, whilst News Corporation has taken over 400,000 sq ft. in London Bridge.

Further new entrants are also on the horizon, with Waterloo and Stratford set to make their mark on London’s office scene over the next decade. Stratford, with strong transport links and new modern offices at competitive prices, has already attracted some major public sector occupiers, such as the Financial Conduct Authority, away from more established markets. Whilst Waterloo is now set to see the predominantly office-led Elizabeth House project go ahead after a tortuous planning battle, tying in with an already strong amenity offering and the busiest transport hub in the country.

Our interactive map below demonstrates where the major transport hubs are in London today, as measured by exits and entries for train stations, tube stations and DLR stations. Alongside we have mapped, by postcode district, average second-hand office rents across London between April 2014 and April 2015 – giving a reliable estimate as to rental variations across the key parts of the city.

The map demonstrates the still strong rental disparity between the London office market’s core locations and the emerging transport hub locations just outside it. Stratford, incidentally, has no second-hand office rent data mapped due to a lack of evidence; however, with rents for brand-new office space around £35 per sq ft. it provides exceptional value against older more centrally located stock.

Looking forward, we believe that locations such as King’s Cross and London Bridge will see strong rental growth compared to much of London, due to having the magic combination of good amenity, strong transport credentials and a degree of value against the inner core. The market will move more slowly in locations such as Stratford due to their slightly off-piste location and lack of amenity against central locations. That said, the arrival of Crossrail will help to narrow the rental gap over time, as it brings outlying locations closer to the core in terms of journey times.