What will it really mean for the rural economy if the nation does vote to leave?

The unpredictability of a post-EU era, with its associated currency fluctuations and market volatility, would have far-reaching implications for rural estates. In the short term, the uncertainty ahead of the referendum is likely to hit confidence among investors. Indeed, Strutt & Parker’s English Farmland Market Review for winter 2015/16 cites the run-up to the vote as a threat to land values, as it will likely cause caution amongst most buyers and sellers. It will not necessarily diminish prices, but it could stall the market.

A vote to remain in the EU would trigger a return to the norm, while an exit vote would further destabilise the market. It all depends on how much agricultural subsidy we get from the government. If subsidies were removed overnight, it would be catastrophic. However, the government is unlikely to abandon British agriculture – food security is too high up the agenda. That said, support values are likely to be lower than they are now, so land values would most likely fall in turn.

Landed estates could be hit by a double blow of reduced farm profitability and a weakness in the wider rural economy. A cut in subsidies will see farm profitability fall, which, with current commodity prices, will put downward pressure on farm rents.

We might see a complete shake-up of the tenanted sector, with estates consolidating around fewer, larger and more economically viable farms. This will mean opportunity for some, but estates which are heavily reliant on agriculture may need to consider diversification.

A principal motivation for Brexit is a tightening of the rules governing migrants. However, in certain parts of the country, migrant labour is important; without those workers, some businesses will really struggle.

The prospect of reduced regulation is appealing but probably unrealistic. It seems unlikely that what’s in place will be removed altogether.

There is also the benefit of reduced EU membership payments to the tune of €10 billion. It will go some way to refilling government coffers but will it be of benefit to the rural sector? The government makes the right noises about backing the rural economy but there will be plenty of other sectors calling for support as well.

Additionally, an EU withdrawal could spark renewed calls for Scottish Independence and, at the same time, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is promoting further land reform, so Scottish landowners have a lot to think about.

Whatever the vote, life will go on – the key is to adapt to change if this is what the country votes for. The longevity of estates will depend on a well-considered strategy that leads to further diversification. One thing is for sure, agricultural support will be different beyond 2020 – Brexit or not