Uncertainty chipping away at economic growth
- The final estimate of GDP for Q1 2017 confirmed quarterly growth at 0.2%, the weakest expansion since Q1 2016, when output also grew by just 0.2%. PWC’s nowcasting model estimates that Q2 GDP growth is likely to come in at just 0.3%.
- Consumer price inflation (CPI) increased by 2.6% in the year to June; the coming months, however, are expected to see import cost pressures linked to sterling’s decline push inflation up to around 3%.
- The latest employment statistics for the three months to May 2017 show an increase in employment of 175,000 when compared against the three months to February. Unemployment fell by 64,000 to 1.5 million, with the unemployment rate falling marginally to 4.5%.
- Brexit update: much commentary (not ours) in the aftermath of the recent election focused on the increased likelihood of a ‘Soft Brexit’ as a result of Theresa May’s ‘defeat’. However, given the Labour Party is also sort of committed to leaving the Single market and Customs Union, whilst retaining the “exact same benefits”, it would appear both parties are in favour of having and eating cake. Thus the picture remains completely unclear.
Read the full report here.
Read the full report in Chinese here.