Matthew Henderson
Associate Director, Residential Research
Residential housing quarterly Autumn market update 2025 Outlook, Forecast
Strutt & Parker continues to have a positive view for the wider housing market with growth of up for 20% over the next 5 years. Transaction levels returned to above 300,000 pre-COVID average, as had been expected, with the increases in stamp duty costs – bought in at the start of Q2 – being priced into the market. The last 12 months have seen a 3% growth in house prices however this has been more heavily weighted to more northern, typically more affordable, regions.
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2025
|
5-years to 2029 inclusive | |
|---|---|---|
|
Sales
|
||
| Prime Central London | -5% to 0% | 5% to 10% |
| UK | 1% to 4% | 15% to 20% |
|
Lettings
|
||
| Prime Central London | 1% to 3% | 10% to 15% |
The south east and London has not fared as well, with prime markets in particular struggling. The number of transactions in the £1m+ market in Prime Central London (PCL) stayed relatively flat against Q2. The volume of sales over £2m fell marginally, with £1m to £2m sales growing by 6%.
“Speculation in the build up to the delayed Budget, following the removal of the non-dom status, has altered typical patterns of buyer demand and demographics. This shift has seen Brits accounting for a large proportion of buyers; we are also seeing new global wealth corridors emerging. Chinese buyers are expanding their London portfolios, deeming now an attractive time to buy with good value opportunities, and wealth moving to the UK from the UAE.” says Claire Reynolds, Strutt & Parker’s new National Head of Sales.
“Many buyers are represented by buying agents, to help them navigate this complex but opportunistic market. We have seen many pied-a-terre purchases, indicating an emerging undercurrent of confidence in London for both lifestyle and future investment. Best-in-class properties are still receiving competing bids despite the uncertain landscape, with Notting Hill in particular showing resilience in both demand and pricing.
“We are also working as closely as ever with our lettings team. Some landlords deterred by the Renters’ Rights Bill are now looking to sell, and conversely some sellers are considering retaining their properties with higher rents presenting lettings as a more appealing option in the short-term."
Rents in PCL have grown marginally over this quarter, with new lets continuing an annual trend where Q3 volumes greatly exceed Q1 and Q2. Against 2024, the number of new lets in 2025 is -11% down. This is another enduring trend that has been going on since before COVID. A mixture of landlords selling up under financial pressure and leaving the market, and tenants signing up for ever longer leases continues to reduce the amount of new lets each year. The royal assent of the Renters Rights Act has unfortunately not yet bought much clarity on when the new legislation will come into force, and exactly how it will be implemented; market assumptions are that the majority will begin to be enforced in the Spring of next year.
Matt Henderson, Residential Research Lead adds “The housing market is already on the back-foot due to the build up to the budget. The weeks of conjecture leading up to the delayed Autumn Budget have been dominated by ambiguity and speculation, over a far longer period than previous years.
“This creates an environment where buyers and sellers are hesitant to transact, not knowing what the tax landscape will be post-Budget. This uncertainty has a tangible impact at the top end of the market where more discretionary buyers can afford to sit and wait before making an investment.
“There is a gap between buyer and seller expectations – which is wider at higher price points – yet in broad strokes this is a buyers’ market. This allows those looking to transact to be pickier about what they view, and more demanding on value. Regardless of this there are prime, turnkey homes that have sold in a timely fashion and some best-in-class properties have achieved record values.”
Read the full report here