Vanessa Hale
Director, Research
The world might be focused on urbanisation, but a new, overlooked trend is set to shape the UK’s housing market.
A cursory glance at existing research would suggest cities have the upper hand over villages. By 2050, the UN predicts that 66% of the world’s population will be urban, with the UK inevitably being part of the trend. By the mid-century, there will be approximately 65 million people living in Britain’s cities, compared to just eight million in rural areas (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. United Kingdom Population Forecast
Source: United Nations, Strutt & Parker
Positive and negatives of urbanisation
Urbanisation has generally been viewed as a positive economic and social driver that leads to longer life expectancies, a reduction in poverty, increased literacy and higher education levels, as well as enhanced cultural opportunities. But as the urban trend has gathered pace, a number of negative traits have begun to appear. When urbanisation is too rapid, or when it is undertaken without proper planning, cities can become more unequal than rural areas, resulting in a rise in substandard living conditions, urban sprawl and increased pollution.
Urbanisation can also lead to unsustainable production and consumption patterns. Add in concerns about the affordability of housing and limited development, and perhaps it is not so surprising that over the past three years of Housing Futures research we have seen the emergence of a new creeping trend – the desire to move back to rural.
Our latest Housing Futures survey identifies four factors that are shaping the village revival
- Realising the dream
A village was by far the most popular choice for respondents who are intending to move, with 21% naming it as their preferred location, compared with 14% for a market town and only 12% for either a big city or a suburb (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Area description for future home
Source: Housing Futures Survey 2015, Strutt & Parker - Being connected
Broadband and mobile are essential to rural life. Access to broadband was a key factor for 49% of those intending to move to a village, while 38% highlighted mobile connectivity. - Looking to rent
There has been a significant increase in respondents expecting to live in rental accommodation. In our current survey, 10% of those who want to move to a village anticipate living in a private rental unit, up from 1% in 2013. - Easy living
Ease of access is an important issue for respondents intending to move to a village, with 60% wanting to be able to walk to shops, 48% to local transport and 45% to medical facilities.
For more information and research on the renewal of villages throughout the UK and an examination of the implications of continued urbanisation, visit our Housing Futures section to download our publication, ‘Housing Futures – The Village Revival’ or get in touch with Vanessa Hale.
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